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31 at DMP RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 2:42 a.m.

In Response To: 31 at DMP (John O'Hagan)

I had this position in the last chance against Ray Baker of California. OTB, I narrowed it down to the loose hit or 22/18. Running out to the 18 doesn't reallly leave a quadruple shot since many of the hits leave so many returns that Ray will probably pass on the hit. But if that happens, I might not roll a 4 or 5 to escape and the race will be pick-em even if I do. Estimating wins as best I could led me to the "hit loose and hope for the best" play. The RO shows that to be slightly better than 22/18.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 140 1 point match pip: 144 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---aBBBB----bF-bbc-e--A---:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:1:10
to play 31

1.	Rollout1	7/3*	eq: -0.040
	Player: Opponent: 47.98% (G:14.98% B:1.59%) 52.02% (G:14.42% B:1.43%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.048...-0.032) Duration: 20 minutes 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/18	eq: -0.051 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 47.44% (G:10.29% B:0.83%) 52.56% (G:8.82% B:0.62%) Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.057...-0.045) Duration: 17 minutes 48 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9	eq: -0.081 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 45.93% (G:11.93% B:1.32%) 54.07% (G:12.35% B:0.78%) Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.088...-0.074) Duration: 18 minutes 02 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/21 13/10	eq: -0.115 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 44.24% (G:11.28% B:1.06%) 55.76% (G:11.12% B:0.63%) Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.122...-0.108) Duration: 17 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• 31 at DMP
  John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:30 a.m.
  • 31 at DMP
    Marv Porten -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:30 a.m.
    • 31 at DMP
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 6:12 a.m.
    • 31 at DMP
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:51 a.m.
    • 31 at DMP
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:21 p.m.
      • 31 at DMP
        Marv Porten -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 6:08 p.m.
  • 31 at DMP
    nori -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:27 a.m.
    • 31 at DMP
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:03 p.m.
  • 31 at DMP
    Fabrice Liardet -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:48 a.m.
  • 31 at DMP
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 12:28 p.m.
  • 31 at DMP
    higonefive -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:39 p.m.
  • 31 at DMP RO
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 2:42 a.m.