According to dorbel (aka Paul Money) Snowie said to 20/9 “blunder!” and gave 20/15 20/14 as best, by far. GNU relativated, but with the same ranking. XG gave an almost deadrace with a fotofinish in favor for 20/15 20/14. If you look at this as a cash game, the conceptual framework isn’t touched. Holding the golden point is clear cut. But trailing 1 to 6 postcrawford with a doubled gammon brings you wirtually to DMP, wouldn’t you set the board on fire? AtS breaking from behind would give more gammons for the trailer. So, and that is stunning, 20/15 20/14 could be a contender. What has to be sacrified for a future living of our position? Can we delay it, driving the spare from the golden point to the 9point, beyond the enemy hitters? White is ahead in the race and has more urge to break contact with avoiding shots, espacially under the threat of our strong home board. All checkers on his 7 and 8 point are now also spares which can be played behind the enemy anchor, until something good will happen. In the process of bearing in, his board will become a weapon, sharper with every additional point. If we compare the spares of both armys after the delay play, we have two on the black side and five on the white side. A likely scenario is: the white homeboard will grow, the black one will detoriate. Driving our spare around the board will delay the inevitable breaking of an anchor from our rear position to a time, where the danger of breaking likely is higher. We have to work against the prospect of brittleness. This is also an argument against the breaking from middle plays. It will tear our position apart into a rear and front position, giving up connectivity. Breaking from middle abandons an anchor for more flexibility at a time, where it is not so dangerous, but sacrifies also connectivity of the position and perhaps the better anchor, which will probably generate direct shots. Breaking/building will make six points (close to the bad 7 points), leaving the spare on the golden point without work. Beaking from behind looks like spitting pipcelot in the face. We imagine at least at points, which will transform into blots as a chance to get away. That suggests leaving a blot as the weakest way. But here we can initiate a scrimmige and turn more wins into gammons. It is a gamble. Playing against a B52, i would for sure close my eyes, say “Hail Mary”and going for a gammon.
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| XGID=--BBBAB-A--bb---BbcbC-baa-:1:-1:1:56:1:6:1:7:10 | ||||
 to play 56 | ||||
is Player 2| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 20/14 | eq: -0,103 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/9 | eq: -0,106 (-0,003) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout2 | 20/15 16/10 | eq: -0,128 (-0,026) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout2 | 16/5 | eq: -0,130 (-0,028) | |||
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| 1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross