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The perils of gaps

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 19 November 2010, at 11:33 p.m.

In Response To: Do you take? (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Not at all. I'd drop that in a heartbeat. Timing and the ability to crash blue's position here or pick up a third checker, makes all the difference. Getting a shot will be useless if you can't win after hitting it. And the ability to run off the bar point without the gap in the 5-prime is huge. Getting a third checker sent back with the ability to enter on the 5 pt is also a big factor here.

I was really speaking in general about the perils of gaps that are way larger than I for one had ever imagined while trying to learn this game and was referring to more typical holding game situations like the following two where the lead can be over 50 pips and still not be a double with the 4 point gap whereas it is a much stronger D/T with the 5 point gap:

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77
15 point match
pip: 130
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----BBCCB----A---bcdb-Bbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 69.41% (G: 7.45% B: 0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.59% (G: 3.03% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.433
Double:+0.875
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.713
Double/Take:+0.701 (-0.012)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.287)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

VS

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 75
15 point match
pip: 130
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----BBCCB----A---bcd-bBbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 73.86% (G: 7.27% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.14% (G: 2.09% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.530
Double:+1.083
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.876 (-0.051)
Double/Take:+0.927
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.073)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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