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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: Light to play 44 (John O'Hagan)

Most of us (myself included) got this one wrong. Pointing on the deuce is best, making the 4 and hitting loose on the deuce is 2nd, and making the 9 is 3rd. Gammons are real valuable ATS, and putting the oppt on the bar against a 3-point board when he's got another blot on his 5-point is the way to gammonville. Pointing gains a lot on the 9 dancers and over half of the oppt's entering numbers don't cover the 5 or make an advanced anchor. So you net quite a few more gammons for relatively few extra losses. Making the 9 gives the oppt several ways to hit and put you on the bar against a 3 or 3.5 point board.

is Player 2

score: 10
pip: 145
15 point match
pip: 140
score: 11

is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BCBC-A-cC---d-ca--b-A:1:-1:1:44:11:10:0:15:10
to play 44

1.Rollout1Bar/21 10/2* 6/2eq: +0.718
Player:
Opponent:
74.25% (G:28.67% B:3.66%)
25.75% (G:5.40% B:0.37%)
Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.705...+0.731)
Duration: 9 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/21 8/4(2) 6/2* eq: +0.684 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
72.14% (G:33.00% B:5.01%)
27.86% (G:8.98% B:0.97%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.669...+0.699)
Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/21 13/9(3)eq: +0.665 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
75.98% (G:21.87% B:3.17%)
24.02% (G:5.10% B:0.36%)
Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.651...+0.679)
Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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