I found the variants below instructive. If Blue's board is stronger and/or Blue's blot is further back, then hanging back becomes a candidate. XGR+ and XG 4-ply differ quite a bit in their opinions here, though, so maybe someone with a more powerful computer than I have should roll these out to confirm the results.
            
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 107 | | 5 point match | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBAB-----bC--bcBdbAaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 21/13 | eq: -0.653 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.10% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
71.90% (G:1.99% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 21/18 13/8 | eq: -0.654 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.02% (G:1.44% B:0.03%)
71.98% (G:2.04% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/5 | eq: -0.659 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.08% (G:2.25% B:0.05%)
69.92% (G:5.82% B:0.11%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 105 | | 5 point match | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BABBB-----bC--bcBdb-Aaa-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.637 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.81% (G:6.69% B:0.19%)
67.19% (G:13.27% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/4 | eq: -0.703 (-0.066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.19% (G:5.97% B:0.18%)
68.81% (G:13.22% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/13 | eq: -0.728 (-0.091) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.51% (G:1.62% B:0.04%)
73.49% (G:2.25% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/18 13/8 | eq: -0.739 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.36% (G:1.70% B:0.04%)
73.64% (G:2.36% B:0.05%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 105 | | 5 point match | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-BBBB-----bC--bcBdb-Aaa-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/13 | eq: -0.771 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.50% (G:1.40% B:0.03%)
74.50% (G:2.43% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 22/18 13/8 | eq: -0.772 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.54% (G:1.51% B:0.03%)
74.46% (G:2.52% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/4 | eq: -0.795 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.30% (G:5.15% B:0.12%)
70.70% (G:12.67% B:0.29%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.803 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.33% (G:5.39% B:0.14%)
70.67% (G:13.32% B:0.29%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross