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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 21 November 2010, at 3:15 p.m.

In Response To: 64 to play (John O'Hagan)

The 2-cube gammon value ATS is around .6 so, for it to be profitable, the loose hit play has to create 10/6 as many extra gammons as it does extra losses. OTB, I estimated that the safe play would win about 90% of the time and that the loose hitting play would lose 24% of the time (arrived at by assuming I'd lose 80% when he hits). So that's around 14% addl losses which means I'd need 10/6 x 14% (around 23%) extra gammons to justify the big play. My g chances after a fan looked to be around 20% and I'd need to get real lucky to win one after being hit so that's only around 6/36 gammons, far short of the 8.3/36 benchmark. These 6/36 aren't all "extra" gammons since I win a few percent after playing safe. So I chose to play safe. My estimates were a little off but still lead to the right conclusion.

is XG Roller+

score: 11
pip: 107
13 point match
pip: 74
score: 6

is John O'Hagan
XGID=-BBABaCC-B-----a-cacdb----:1:-1:1:64:6:11:0:13:10
to play 64

1.Rollout17/1 6/2eq: +0.767
Player:
Opponent:		 87.12% (G:2.17% B:0.02%)
12.88% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.764...+0.770)
Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout19/3 9/5* eq: +0.693 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		 75.44% (G:16.25% B:0.07%)
24.56% (G:1.57% B:0.04%)		Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.689...+0.697)
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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