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cube action ATS?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 25 November 2010, at 8:39 p.m.

In Response To: cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

If tan hits he'll win almost all the time. He has a 13/36 or 36% chance of hitting. If he misses, he still wins a few as black will be forced to leave a shot next turn and there'saways the possibility of rolling big doubles. I'll estimate about another 4% wins for an even 40%.

There are serious market losers here and black can't recube so tan should turn the cube as soon as he's above the min doubling point.

tan loses, no double -> 7-away 1-away -> 9 equity tan loses after doubld -> match over -> 0 equity

tan wins, no double -> 5-away 3-away -> 35 equity tan wins after double -> 3-away 3-away -> 50 equity

tan is risking 9.1 to gain 15, so the min double point is

risk/(risk + gain) = 9/(9+15) = 9/24 = 37.5%

Looks like a double to me, but I might have hosed the GWC estimation.

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