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RO ..etc etc etc

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 2:48 a.m.

In Response To: RO ..etc etc etc (Stick)

For that position XGR+ is very reasonable to use. For complex position that's another story!

Note this is done using the current Alpha version of version 2. All level are a bit slower right now (typically 20% slower). However the VR yield much better results as the NN is much more accurate. For instance using v1, the time is 21.1 seconds and the CI is 0.0023 and 0.0041 for ND and D/T. To get the same CI than V2 would have require 3053 game in v1 (so around 50 seconds).

If i implement mix level for RO, in the case of XGR+ vs 1-ply you can divide the time by 2.

A quick comment on the results: apparently 3-ply still errs a bit (although less than V1) somewhere in the games.

is Player 2

score: 10
pip: 43
13 point match
pip: 88
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBCBB----------a-b-Bdce-:1:1:1:00:6:10:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 44.23% (G: 1.55% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.77% (G: 0.76% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.55% (G: 1.41% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.45% (G: 3.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.1026
Redouble:+0.0559
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.0624 (-0.1183)
Redouble/Take:+0.0559
Redouble/Drop:+1.0000 (+0.9441)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ±0.0016 (-0.0640...-0.0608)
Confidence Redouble: ±0.0027 (+0.0532...+0.0586)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 25.1 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.151.alpha, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 44.18% (G: 1.56% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.82% (G: 0.80% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.60% (G: 1.41% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.40% (G: 7.91% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.1038
Redouble:+0.0576
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.0593 (-0.1170)
Redouble/Take:+0.0576
Redouble/Drop:+1.0000 (+0.9424)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ±0.0014 (-0.0607...-0.0580)
Confidence Redouble: ±0.0017 (+0.0559...+0.0593)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.151.alpha, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 44.18% (G: 1.53% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.82% (G: 0.76% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 44.62% (G: 1.39% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 55.38% (G: 2.75% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.1040
Redouble:+0.0579
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:-0.0598 (-0.1176)
Redouble/Take:+0.0579
Redouble/Drop:+1.0000 (+0.9421)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Confidence No Redouble: ±0.0014 (-0.0611...-0.0584)
Confidence Redouble: ±0.0016 (+0.0563...+0.0594)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.151.alpha, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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