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3 positions from the same game *RO*

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 5:22 a.m.

In Response To: 3 positions from the same game (Dmitriy Obukhov)

In the first position the standard running play comes on top. Stick's slot is close, but in 3rd place, although longer rollout might change things a little. I am surprised bar/21 24/18 is a serous contender here. This play seems wrong. Black's structure is bad and this play allows him to attack.

	is Chutzpah score: 0 pip: 150 7 point match pip: 160 score: 4 is Lyurix
XGID=----b-E-CB--eC---b-c--c-AA:0:0:1:64:4:0:0:7:10
to play 64

1.	Rollout1	Bar/15	eq: -0.319
	Player: Opponent: 48.29% (G:9.47% B:0.85%) 51.71% (G:15.64% B:0.45%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.333...-0.305) Duration: 43 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 24/18	eq: -0.333 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 48.10% (G:9.86% B:0.95%) 51.90% (G:16.49% B:0.46%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.346...-0.320) Duration: 42 minutes 07 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/7	eq: -0.335 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 47.67% (G:12.39% B:1.21%) 52.33% (G:15.59% B:0.68%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.350...-0.320) Duration: 47 minutes 18 seconds
4.	4 ply	Bar/21 8/2	eq: -0.356 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 47.07% (G:9.84% B:0.34%) 52.93% (G:15.61% B:0.63%)
5.	2 ply	Bar/21 9/3	eq: -0.556 (-0.237)
	Player: Opponent: 42.93% (G:10.41% B:0.39%) 57.07% (G:18.89% B:1.22%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

In the second position double hit of course wins more gammons. The question is: do they compensate for extra loses? True, gammon price is diminished ATS (0.358), but that does not mean that gammons are worthless ATS. What hitting play does is: it prevents black from anchoring. It also prevents him from improving his homeboard, which is not particulary threatening with four checkers back. It takes away 66 roll -- the joker he rolled next btw --. These factors together make hitting play an efficient way to win the game. Still, extra gammon loses make two plays about equal:

	is Chutzpah score: 0 pip: 141 7 point match pip: 128 score: 4 is Lyurix
XGID=-aaBbBC-BB---B-b-B-bb-bab-:1:1:1:41:4:0:0:7:10
to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/2* 2/1*	eq: +0.583
	Player: Opponent: 73.21% (G:24.25% B:3.15%) 26.79% (G:7.56% B:0.18%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.577...+0.589) Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: +0.583
	Player: Opponent: 73.40% (G:20.56% B:2.57%) 26.60% (G:6.26% B:0.09%) Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.578...+0.588) Duration: 51 minutes 03 seconds
3.	4 ply	13/12 13/9	eq: +0.533 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 72.37% (G:18.81% B:0.99%) 27.63% (G:5.93% B:0.08%)
4.	4 ply	13/9 6/5	eq: +0.532 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 72.42% (G:18.94% B:0.93%) 27.58% (G:6.08% B:0.08%)
5.	4 ply	9/8 9/5	eq: +0.508 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 71.26% (G:20.57% B:0.93%) 28.74% (G:6.47% B:0.09%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

It is tempting to clear 17pt in position 3 while Black is on the bar and has 2 to enter and 2 to hit. Yet, it is wrong. I believe Stick is 100% correct on this one for the right reasons. Another reason comes from a scenario when Black comes in on a 23pt and never rolls a two to safety that checker. Then White can attack it at some point.

	is Chutzpah score: 0 pip: 140 7 point match pip: 115 score: 4 is Lyurix
XGID=aB-BcBB-BA---B-b-B-bb-bab-:1:1:1:62:4:0:0:7:10
to play 62

1.	Rollout1	13/7 9/7	eq: +0.812
	Player: Opponent: 81.26% (G:24.08% B:1.58%) 18.74% (G:2.88% B:0.08%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.805...+0.819) Duration: 20 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	17/9	eq: +0.769 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 80.02% (G:22.19% B:1.42%) 19.98% (G:2.95% B:0.07%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.762...+0.776) Duration: 20 minutes 42 seconds
3.	4 ply	13/11 9/3	eq: +0.662 (-0.150)
	Player: Opponent: 77.07% (G:23.93% B:0.63%) 22.93% (G:4.49% B:0.09%)
4.	3 ply	13/5	eq: +0.612 (-0.200)
	Player: Opponent: 75.18% (G:23.77% B:0.48%) 24.82% (G:5.29% B:0.08%)
5.	3 ply	17/11 13/11	eq: +0.598 (-0.214)
	Player: Opponent: 75.48% (G:20.28% B:0.42%) 24.52% (G:6.22% B:0.15%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• 3 positions from the same game
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 1:39 a.m.
  • 3 positions from the same game
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 6:46 a.m.
    • 3 positions from the same game
      Stick -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 7:34 a.m.
      • 3 positions from the same game
        Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 7:58 a.m.
        • 3 positions from the same game
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 10:24 p.m.
          • 3 positions from the same game
            Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 10:33 p.m.
  • 3 positions from the same game *RO*
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 5:22 a.m.
    • I counter
      Stick -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 2:41 p.m.
      • I counter
        christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 3:39 p.m.
        • I counter
          Stick -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 4:27 p.m.
          • I counter
            christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 4:49 p.m.
            • I counter
              Stick -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 4:59 p.m.
      • I counter
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 7:31 p.m.
      • Countering my original Counter, AtS RO
        Stick -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 10:01 p.m.
        • Countering my original Counter, AtS RO
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 2:19 p.m.
          • Countering my original Counter, AtS RO
            Stick -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
      • I counter
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 3:18 p.m.