BGonline.org Forums

Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 10:20 p.m.

In Response To: Cube decision at -3 -5 (Neil Robins)

It surprised me that this rolled out as a take.

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 163 7 point match pip: 104 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBCB----b--a-b-dc-B---:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72.86% (G: 36.42% B: 6.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.14% (G: 3.75% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.61% (G: 39.26% B: 18.90%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.39% (G: 3.83% B: 0.28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.952
Double:	+1.578
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.855 (-0.127)
Double/Take:	+0.982
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.018)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.007 (+0.848...+0.862)
Confidence Double:	± 0.012 (+0.970...+0.995)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	99.8%
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.853	(Money: +0.840)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.980
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.020
3.	No double	+0.846	-0.133
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.736 0.352 0.056 - 0.264 0.038 0.002 +0.853 +0.846 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.003 Player EU_IT_TORSEDDI owns 2-cube 0.712 0.377 0.209 - 0.288 0.038 0.004 +1.461 +0.980 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
11120 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902635582 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Cube decision at -3 -5
  Neil Robins -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 1:50 p.m.
  • Cube decision at -3 -5
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 4:52 p.m.
  • Cube decision at -3 -5
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 27 November 2010, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Cube decision at -3 -5
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 4:08 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 10:20 p.m.
    • Congrats to Chuck...
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 3:06 p.m.
      • Congrats to Chuck...
        Stick -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
        • Thanks to (just) one of you *NM*
          Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 2 December 2010, at 4:12 p.m.
        • Congrats to Chuck...
          happyjuggler0 -- Thursday, 2 December 2010, at 6:27 p.m.