[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 28 November 2010, at 10:20 p.m.

In Response To: Cube decision at -3 -5 (Neil Robins)

It surprised me that this rolled out as a take.





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 163
7 point match
pip: 104
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBCB----b--a-b-dc-B---:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.86% (G: 36.42% B: 6.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.14% (G: 3.75% B: 0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.61% (G: 39.26% B: 18.90%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.39% (G: 3.83% B: 0.28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.952
Double:+1.578
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.855 (-0.127)
Double/Take:+0.982
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.018)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.848...+0.862)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.970...+0.995)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.8%
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.853(Money: +0.840)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.980
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.020
3.No double +0.846 -0.133
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7360.3520.056-0.2640.0380.002 +0.853 +0.846
Standard error0.0010.0010.001-0.0010.0000.000 0.002 0.003
Player EU_IT_TORSEDDI owns 2-cube0.7120.3770.209-0.2880.0380.004 +1.461 +0.980
Standard error0.0010.0010.002-0.0010.0000.000 0.004 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
11120 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902635582 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.