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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 2:31 a.m.

In Response To: Black to play D3 (John O'Hagan)

It's almost always right to PoH on the important 5-point in the early or mid-game, but here doing so is slightly wrong. Here it's better just to clear the mid with 13/10(4). That'll probably give you an efficient cube next time. The 5-point isn't so important in this position. In fact, White should not make it with any 4 next time. He's down 27 pips in the race so staying back on the 24 is his best gp. Pointing on the 5 with 8/5x(3) 6/3 does appear to give you lots of extra gammons but that's not really true. If White dances, Black should cash the game rather than playing on and this reduces his gammons by quite a bit. Another problem with pointing here is that Black figures to have some problems clearing the mid safely since there are no outfield landing points. So, as much as it pains me to write this, it looks like Stick was right.

	is XG Roller+ score: 0 pip: 118 13 point match pip: 133 score: 0 is John O'Hagan
XGID=---BBBC-A---dC---c-fA-b-A-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:0:13:10
to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/10(4)	eq: +0.874
	Player: Opponent: 72.62% (G:8.54% B:0.15%) 27.38% (G:3.10% B:0.08%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.866...+0.882) Duration: 32 minutes 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/5*(3) 6/3	eq: +0.852 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 70.78% (G:17.88% B:0.48%) 29.22% (G:5.12% B:0.17%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.844...+0.860) Duration: 17 minutes 47 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/10 8/5*(3)	eq: +0.785 (-0.089)
	Player: Opponent: 69.63% (G:17.44% B:0.42%) 30.37% (G:5.16% B:0.21%) Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.770...+0.800) Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/10(2) 8/5*(2)	eq: +0.747 (-0.128)
	Player: Opponent: 68.61% (G:17.60% B:0.47%) 31.39% (G:6.43% B:0.26%) Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.730...+0.764) Duration: 4 minutes 43 seconds
5.	Rollout2	13/7(2)	eq: +0.668 (-0.206)
	Player: Opponent: 68.19% (G:11.62% B:0.23%) 31.81% (G:5.49% B:0.12%) Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.650...+0.686) Duration: 6 minutes 44 seconds
6.	Rollout2	13/10 8/5*(2) 6/3	eq: +0.662 (-0.212)
	Player: Opponent: 66.77% (G:17.22% B:0.51%) 33.23% (G:7.75% B:0.27%) Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.646...+0.678) Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Black to play D3
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 2:28 a.m.
  • Black to play D3
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 7:53 a.m.
    • Black to play D3
      Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 8:03 a.m.
    • Centered cube...
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 8:28 a.m.
  • Black to play D3
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 11:00 a.m.
  • Black to play D3
    ah_clem -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
  • Black to play D3
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 6:39 p.m.
  • Black to play D3
    Stick -- Monday, 29 November 2010, at 6:55 p.m.
  • RO
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 2:31 a.m.
    • RO
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 30 November 2010, at 3:28 p.m.