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64R-33 and 65R-33

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 3 December 2010, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: 64R-33 ^15 RO (Ian Shaw)


 ' ' '2O '5X '3X ' ' '3O

1X ' ' ' '5O '3O '2O '6X

65R-33: Blue played B (best)



2O ' ' ' '5X '3X ' ' '5O

1X '2O '2O3O '1O ' '1X5X

64R-33, Blue played A (best)


I find it surprising that 64R-33A is best. I would have played 33B for both 64R and 65R.

You are not alone. From my experience, most people routinely play 64R-33B (until they know A is better). That's why I diagrammed the position pair.

After 64R, my reasoning is that making the anchor is more of an improvement since it covers the outfield where the opponent might want to hide the blot on 14, and the advanced anchor gains in value since the opponent has more numbers to make blocking points.

If Blue plays 64R-33B (not diagrammed), he gets 9 extra shots vs 55, 6 extra shots vs 52, and 3 extra shots when White stays on the 14pt with 65 or 31. (We won't subtract the 11 lost shots the if White rolls 42; she only makes the 4pt because it's better than 14/8.) For those key rolls (on a quick count), the shot total is 98 vs 65 (in 1296). However, the increased value of the hits when Blue owns a three-point board more than compensates for 33% fewer shots.

After 64R-33B, Blue gets hit with 61 or 43 (the latter is a close decision), but these would be point-making rolls for White anyway, and Blue can hit back with 16 numbers (any 2 or 5 that is not accompanied by a 6) and if he misses, White is still scrambling.

It is true that 64R-33B does better vs most point-making numbers, but there aren't so many and the difference is not great.

With 65R-33B (left-hand position), White is better contained. She cannot escape so easily with 63 and 62, numbers that would leave a shot if played on the other side of the board. By contrast, Blue's 64R-33B (not diagrammed) falls flat on those rolls, because White's 14pt blot will safety with the 6.

Indeed, we see that B wins more games and loses fewer gammons than A. However, the attacking play wins enough extra gammons to make it slightly the superior play.

Right. At dmp or gammon save, B is right in both positions. At gammon go, A is right in both positions. It is only for money (the most frequently encountered scores) that the positions are on opposite sides of the fence.

Nack

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