I was playing against GNU 2-ply here, and my play was 9/3 7/5. XG plays either 9/1 or 9/3 7/5, depending on the evaluation level and whether you set up the position ATS or for money; in any case it thinks the two options are close.
The main reason I posted this position, though, is that GNU 2-ply dinged my move and told me that I should have made the startling QF play 20/18 9/3. XG opinion of 20/18 9/3 is so low that it doesn't even include the play among its top 32 choices! To do an XG rollout I had to finesse things by changing the roll to 62. The rollout doesn't fully vindicate 20/18 9/3, but it's close enough that I regard it as a conceptual mistake to overlook the option entirely. White's horrible board and risk of immediately leaving another blot in the outfield, when contrasted with Blue's powerful forward position, means that 20/18 9/3 gains quite a bit when it works. In particular, it looks like it might be the right play at DMP, though I didn't roll this out (but I did roll it out for money; see below).
           
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 80 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBB-A---b-Bb--cBadab-:1:1:1:62:0:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/1 | eq: -0.268 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.95% (G:3.52% B:0.11%)
70.05% (G:6.04% B:0.22%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.274...-0.262)
Duration: 1 hour 57 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3 7/5 | eq: -0.277 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.98% (G:3.56% B:0.16%)
70.02% (G:5.54% B:0.14%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.282...-0.272)
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/18 9/3 | eq: -0.293 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.42% (G:5.03% B:0.37%)
68.58% (G:13.98% B:0.31%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.300...-0.286)
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 80 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBB-A---b-Bb--cBadab-:1:1:1:62:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/1 | eq: -0.307 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.15% (G:3.55% B:0.11%)
69.85% (G:5.62% B:0.06%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.311...-0.303)
Duration: 4 hours 14 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3 7/5 | eq: -0.312 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.17% (G:3.57% B:0.13%)
69.83% (G:5.40% B:0.06%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.315...-0.309)
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/18 9/3 | eq: -0.360 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.21% (G:5.50% B:0.21%)
68.79% (G:13.34% B:0.06%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.364...-0.356)
Duration: 3 hours 48 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21