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You are pointing out the "Gretchenfrage"
Posted By: higonefive In Response To: They Laughed at my Backgame defense (Joe Freedman)
Date: Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 9:46 p.m.
At 2+2 there were in the problem of the week #83 also backgame questions, with a solution - by the way - where the technique of the "phantom prime", former known as "p... prime" was involved. The phantom prime is a "staying alive" technique out of the heydays and as pure as you can be. Interestingly, a massive XG rollout put this at first. Obviously, Bill Robertie drove his Ford Edsel. His favorite was Snowies favorite. In my comment to his solution, i wrote: "So i think the philosophical question (or epistemological) is, what can we really know for certain in complex backgammon positions. I think, if we use equity estimations from bots as a reference, then this is the archimedic point. But if we are not sure, that there is a flaw in the bot estimation and the move doesn't fit in our conceptual framework of the game, then we have to admit, that there is no certainty. My opinion is: there is so much order from noise, which can't be analyzed, that only with a really massive simulation we can see a little light. And if we think, that the bots are way off in deep back games, then this is south pole exploration. And for sure a "goal line stand". That is in my amygdala, since i've read advanced backgammon." I played in training matches several backgames against XG. At proto backgame stage, he tries to solve the problem in other directions, but he has no fear to go in a full fledged backgame. And his understanding of timing is asthonishing.
We can trust XG. Just my opinion. And in position 1, 5/4* is clear, so clear as a mountain see on a jingle-jangle spring morning. 16/10 or 18/12, that is here the question. I would vote for 16/10, fighting for the six-prime. Or we can recirculate some chekkers, fighting the timing-war. I hope, you made at minimum 40k RO's.
The other positions i will thoroughly study. Thanks for posting it.
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