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Bear in against contact, - play 4-2

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 6 December 2010, at 10:08 p.m.

In Response To: Bear in against contact, - play 4-2 (zalan)

I'll play 8/4*/2. Make another homeboard point and only leave white one blot to attack. If white fails to roll a 3 or a 44 or a 46 he's in a lot of trouble. That's 14 rolls.

After making a "safe" play like 6/2 3/1 blue is only 8 pips behind in the race and white is stuck behind a blockade. That would seem to give blue a roughly equal chance of winning the game. White only needs to roll a 3 or a 6 to be racing home and I like the 14/36 chance better than the 20/36 chance.

OTOH, if we put white on the roof and leave two blots for white to aim at with, say, 8/4* 6/4 we give him 20 shakes to win. Why give him all those extra shots?

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