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Rollout: XGR+ got this decision wrong...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 6 December 2010, at 11:38 p.m.

In Response To: XGR+ got this decision wrong... (Timothy Chow)

Surprised nobody took a crack at this one...whether your verdict was D/T or D/P, you would have been in good (bot) company. I took this cube and XGR+ nodded in approval. The rollout, however, indicates that it's a close drop.

Note that the money-game rollout below shows that it's a take for money. It's often a useful rule of thumb that when you're behind in a match then you should take more liberally than for money (except perhaps in last-roll positions or gammonless positions), but that rule of thumb fails here. Both players have an elevated gammon price but it's the leader's gammon price that is higher at this score. My guess is that's why it's a take for money and a drop ATS.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 109
7 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---A-CCaC----b-Cc-bcB-b-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.49% (G: 6.83% B: 0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.51% (G: 3.19% B: 0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.33% (G: 5.98% B: 0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.67% (G: 3.23% B: 0.21%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.547
Double:+1.353
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.822 (-0.178)
Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.827)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.017...+1.039)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 45 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 109
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---A-CCaC----b-Cc-bcB-b-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:1:0:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.64% (G: 7.16% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.36% (G: 3.23% B: 0.12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.37% (G: 5.28% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.63% (G: 3.11% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.493
Double:+1.097
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.823 (-0.115)
Double/Take:+0.938
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.062)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.818...+0.828)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.929...+0.946)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 9 hours 18 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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