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Blitz Alert!

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Wednesday, 8 December 2010, at 6:03 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz Alert! (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Original position is a pass as expected. It is also the strongest one. The reason seems to be that with a blot on 21 pt he makes a nice point on Black's head when he holls 66.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-Ba--CABAA-eB---cBe-A----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.25% (G: 32.00% B: 0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.75% (G: 7.06% B: 0.33%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.23% (G: 34.71% B: 0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.77% (G: 6.75% B: 0.31%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.345
Double:+1.301
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.778 (-0.222)
Double/Take:+1.055 (+0.055)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.763...+0.793)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+1.029...+1.081)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 31 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Moving the spare to 18pt ,actually, makes it worse, as safety is not his immediate concern. Still a pass:

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-Ba--CABAA-eB---cCe------:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 68.02% (G: 30.91% B: 0.83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.98% (G: 6.31% B: 0.32%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.48% (G: 33.23% B: 0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.52% (G: 6.35% B: 0.33%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.360
Double:+1.286
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.778 (-0.222)
Double/Take:+1.029 (+0.029)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.761...+0.796)
Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+1.001...+1.056)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 98.1%
Duration: 39 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Having a spare on 20pt and 22pt are ,actually, takes worth about the same per this short rollout. Having a checker on 20 pt is no better than 22:

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-Ba--CABAA-eB---cBe--A---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.71% (G: 31.60% B: 0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.29% (G: 7.52% B: 0.40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.79% (G: 34.05% B: 0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.21% (G: 7.26% B: 0.45%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.334
Double:+1.255
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.759 (-0.236)
Double/Take:+0.995
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.005)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.017 (+0.742...+0.775)
Confidence Double: ± 0.029 (+0.966...+1.024)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 64.1%
Duration: 59 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-Ba--CABAA-eB---cBeA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.14% (G: 30.75% B: 0.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.86% (G: 6.90% B: 0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.60% (G: 33.99% B: 0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.40% (G: 7.01% B: 0.34%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.343
Double:+1.254
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.765 (-0.226)
Double/Take:+0.992
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.008)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.751...+0.780)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+0.966...+1.017)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 74.1%
Duration: 31 minutes 30 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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