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Results of Rollouts at -3-6, -3-7, -3-8 Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 10 December 2010, at 5:48 p.m.

In Response To: I Violated Stick.... (Paul Weaver)

I rolled out the same position at -3-6, -3-7 and -3-8. It appears to be a pass at -3-6, a marginal double at -3-7 and a big no double at -3-8. Who among us can honestly claim he would have gotten all of these correct over the board? Certainly not I.

I am not sure, I do not want to jump to any premature conclusions, but I am beginning to suspect that the actual exact score may be an important consideration in determining proper cube action in a match.

Three rollout results are posted below.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC-----b----dBbbacA--:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.15% (G: 46.00% B: 1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.85% (G: 7.27% B: 0.45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G: 45.07% B: 2.81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G: 7.38% B: 0.81%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.956
Double:+1.571
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.910 (-0.090)
Double/Take:+1.128 (+0.128)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.905...+0.915)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.118...+1.138)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 110
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC-----b----dBbbacA--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 73.99% (G: 45.69% B: 1.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.01% (G: 7.32% B: 0.46%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.92% (G: 44.56% B: 2.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.08% (G: 7.61% B: 0.87%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.876
Double:+1.427
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.808 (-0.007)
Double/Take:+0.815
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.185)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.803...+0.814)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.804...+0.827)
Double Decision confidence: 85.6%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
8 point match
pip: 110
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCC-----b----dBbbacA--:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:8:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.14% (G: 45.90% B: 1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.86% (G: 7.24% B: 0.45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.53% (G: 43.16% B: 2.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.47% (G: 7.42% B: 0.86%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.891
Double:+1.324
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.794
Double/Take:+0.462 (-0.332)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.206)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.788...+0.799)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.449...+0.474)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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