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65R-43S-66 and 65R-54S-66, data

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 12:36 a.m.

In Response To: Rollouts (Stick)

160


1O ' ' ' '5X '3X '1X '6O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '4X

65R-43S-66156
158


1O ' ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '6O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '4X

65R-54R-66156


Thanks for the 65R-43S-66 rollouts, Stick. Here is data for both of the above positions at the various scores:

    65R-43S-66
    [D P2 R14] <20*15
    d[R D14] <2
    s[R D23] <5

    65R-54S-66
    [D R2 P39] <62*31, and [R D16 P34] ~20
    d[R D15] <20
    s[R D21] <20
    g[P D13] <20

Key: D = Down (13/7(4)), P = Point (13/1*(2)), R = Run (24/18 13/7(3)). Margins are in thousandths. Before brackets, d = dmp, s = save, g = go; else assume money. After brackets is a bot symbol (< XG 3-ply, ~ Snowie) and the number of trials in thousands, rounded down. (An asterisk is a repeater, not necessary after final number.) For example, "s[R D21] <20" means that at (gammon) save, R is best and D is -.021 after 20000+ trials.

It is unclear whether D is best for money in either position. In the first, the rollout has P within just .002; in the second, XG's result favors D but Snowie's result favors R even more.

Nack

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