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Redoubling Decision at -7-3

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 12:58 a.m.

In Response To: Redoubling Decision at -7-3 (Paul Weaver)

drop: at 58% take and loose: at 43% take and win: at 100% takepoint: (58-43)/(100-43)=15/57=26 when White wins a gammon his MWC is 100% gammon value( cube on 4): (100-57)/(57-0)=43/57=0.75 So, to take Black needs 26+[lost gammons]*0.75 How many gammons are here? Ace point game gets gammoned about 10% of the time with 2 checkers back and about 25% with 3 checkers back. 14 numbers enter and send a 3rd checkers back. There is plenty of contact and this might mean sending more checkers back. I would be surprised if gammon rate is below 20. at 20% take point raises to 26+20*0.75=41% Can Black win this often? I doubt it. Even if White dances this roll, black is far away from winning. He still got 2 checkers back, and his 5pt is open. In fact I am not even sure who will be the favourite, since playing for a win and at the same time trying not to loose a gammon may not be easy. I drop.

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