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I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:59 a.m.

In Response To: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP. (Casper van der Tak)

Casper van der Tak wrote:

Not running also has the advantage of giving more chances to pick up two blots.

Actually, that part I'm not so sure about. According to Rich, the ATS play differs from the DMP play. I'm pretty sure that the ATS play is the one that maximizes the chances of hitting at least one checker. If the DMP play is different, then what's the logic behind the DMP play? I'd guess that the DMP play carries greater chances of hitting at least two checkers. This looks like a rather complicated calculation, involving estimates of the ability to recirculate checkers for additional shots.

Looking over my calculation again, I notice that I missed a couple of technical points—staying behind gains when the opponent rolls 1-1 immediately, but on the other hand if we roll 1-1 after staying behind then we can't run a back checker even if we want to. But I don't think these corrections change the conclusion.

Messages In This Thread

• I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
  Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 6:28 p.m.
  • I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 7:26 p.m.
  • I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 9:09 p.m.
    • I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 12:04 a.m.
      • I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:59 a.m.
        • I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:04 a.m.
  • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
    Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 10:49 p.m.
      • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:16 a.m.
        • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 1:23 a.m.
      • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 5:27 a.m.
        • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 3:26 p.m.
          • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 3:30 p.m.
            • Rollout: I made the right play at DMP. This isn't DMP.
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 13 December 2010, at 4:02 p.m.