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BGonline.org Forums
Disagree with Stick's Book Review
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Disagree with Stick's Book Review (Tom Keith)
Date: Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 5:47 p.m.
I would not call "one for which there is only one legal play" an "arbitrary" definition of "forced move." And I am human, usually, and do not call opening 3-1 or similarly obvious plays "forced," unless "forced" in context obviously means "obvious." That's a matter of usage; it's not a problem of definition.
But it would be possible to draw an arbitrary line (like the one for "close" cube decisions) and not count moves for which 2nd best play is, say, -0.200 worse than best.
Just to counter your (and Douglas's, via Tim) speculation that style might affect ease of play selection and therefore error rate (which might be true -- I don't know, either), could we remember that the original argument for not counting all moves was, I believe, the obviously true point that if all moves are counted you can lower your error rate by never resigning in hopelessly lost positions. Or was that just the most obvious point, with the more arguable point being that turns with no legal moves at all should not be counted because they provide no opportunity to err -- no one misplays a fanning number.
Getting hit is not necessarily a sign of bad play; more likely, it's a sign of bad luck.
I'd betcha that X, where X equal times you hit opponent minus times opponent hits you, correlates with ER. What do you think?
UPDATE regarding Gnubg ER vs. XG PR: I found again the post by Xavier introducing version 1.10's Performance Rating, which informs this table:
Snowie ER Gnubg ER XG PR Forced moves counted? Yes No No Dances counted? Yes No No "Irrelevant moves" counted? Yes Yes No Xavier defines "irrelevant moves" as ones where the equity difference between the best and worst play is less than 0.001.
Oh! Re irrelevant moves, error rate tourneys, and Snowie vs. Gnubg ER, see this discussion, especially Maik Stiebler's comment.
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