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Sample subsequent cubes - Gnubg on 3rd position

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:03 p.m.

In Response To: Sample subsequent cubes (David Rockwell)

Gnubg has troubles with this position, too. 2- and 4-ply evaluations: no double. 3-ply: too good. Rollout: double/pass. 3-ply isn't too far off on win percentage but look at the gammon win estimate!

The score is 0-0/3. Blue on roll.

White	57
Blue	145
Position ID: /s8BABCzLShAMg Match ID: cAlgAAAAAAAA

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4060	(Money: +0.3821)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.1031	+0.1031
3.	No double	+0.8196	-0.1804
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6927 0.1478 0.0076 - 0.3073 0.1447 0.0139 +0.4060 +0.8196 Standard error 0.0028 0.0080 0.0032 - 0.0028 0.0028 0.0029 0.0159 0.0252 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7226 0.1652 0.0146 - 0.2774 0.1556 0.0317 +1.2432 +1.1031 Standard error 0.0026 0.0083 0.0044 - 0.0026 0.0057 0.0050 0.0296 0.0283
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
420 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 875395303 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.1629 (Money: +0.1987)
0.6240 0.1172 0.0003 - 0.3760 0.1569 0.0098
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.3855
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.6145)
3. Double, take +0.3336 ( -0.0518)
Proper cube action: No double, take (7.8%)

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.8971 (Money: +0.7055)
0.6950 0.4204 0.0239 - 0.3050 0.1273 0.0015
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.0173
2. Double, take +1.5062 ( +0.4889)
3. Double, pass +1.0000 ( -0.0173)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (3.4%)

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.2232 (Money: +0.2459)
0.6368 0.1297 0.0003 - 0.3632 0.1494 0.0083
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.4653
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.5347)
3. Double, take +0.4548 ( -0.0105)
Proper cube action: No double, take (1.9%)

Messages In This Thread

• A cube action missed by giants
  phil simborg -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 12:33 a.m.
  • A cube action missed by giants
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 6:24 a.m.
  • I disagree with the XG rollout
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
    • I disagree with the XG rollout
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 7:04 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Stick -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 4:04 p.m.
        • I disagree with the XG rollout
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 12:25 a.m.
          • I disagree with the XG rollout
            Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 8:07 p.m.
    • Prop! *NM*
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 10:46 a.m.
  • Sample subsequent cubes
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 5:37 p.m.
      • Sample subsequent cubes
        Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 8:32 p.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 12:20 a.m.
      • Sample subsequent cubes
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:07 a.m.
        • Sample subsequent cubes
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
          • Sample subsequent cubes
            David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:35 a.m.
            • Sample subsequent cubes
              neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 3:49 a.m.
              • Sample subsequent cubes
                David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
                • Sample subsequent cubes
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 9:22 a.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes - Gnubg on 3rd position
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:03 p.m.
      • Second Opinion (of original position)
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:29 p.m.
  • A stronger RO for you and a comparison of playing strength
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 3:30 a.m.