It seemed automatic to run with one checker here. You need to hit a shot to get off the gammon and you can't get a shot anchored on the ace point. Yet that logic is apparently faulty. What happens if your opponent rolls the immediate ace you're hoping for? If you've run, you get an immediate ace shot - hit or lose now; you're not getting another chance. If you still have the anchor, you get no shot now, but are almost sure to get a shot on the next roll anyway - only failing to get a shot on a double (6/36 non-shots rolls). 10/36 of the time you get 20 numbers instead of just 11 (9 extra). So you get 10*9 = 90 more hit shots here. Meanwhile you lose 6 * 11 = 66 hit shots when doubles are rolled. So you hit more shots by foregoing the single-shot-in-hand for the double-shot-in-the-bush.
 is Player 2score: 5 pip: 8 | ||||||||||||||||
 |   | 7 point match | ||||||||||||||
| pip: 113 score: 4  is Player 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| XGID=--BBBBCA----A----------dB-:0:0:1:63:4:5:0:7:10 | ||||||||||||||||
| to play 63 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/9 7/1 | eq: -2.666 | |||
| ||||||
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/3 | eq: -2.668 (-0.002) | |||
| ||||||
| 3. | Rollout2 | 7/1 6/3 | eq: -2.669 (-0.003) | |||
| ||||||
| * 4. | Rollout1 | 24/15 | eq: -2.678 (-0.012) | |||
| ||||||
| 1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1807 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross