The leader's cash point on a redoubled cube at 3a7a is around 91%. I was playing GNU 2-ply here, who thought that all these were clear ND/T, and that my decision to finally double in Position 4 was a whopper. As you can see from the rollouts, it was GNU's take that was a whopper. XG 3-ply does marginally better but still agrees with my decision to hold the cube until Position 4.
Given that the bots go astray during evaluation, can we trust the rollout results? I think that the redouble/take equity can probably be trusted, since it's DMP, with no opportunities for bot cube errors. Since White can't be gammoned, that means that Positions 1, 3, and 4 are clear D/P. Position 2 is a take but I'm not sure if the ND equity can be trusted.
Since I was playing against GNU, I was trying for the technically correct decision. Against a human opponent, I would have sent the cube over if I thought my opponent was going to drop. But if I thought that my opponent was going to take in Position 1, then I would probably have waited, since I wasn't sure it was a double, let alone a pass. Plus, an opponent who takes in Position 1 may very well take even after my position improves further.
Position 1
                        |
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| XGID=bAB-BCBB------aA----AbbcA-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 90.44% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 9.56% (G: 0.84% B: 0.06%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 93.36% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 6.64% (G: 0.81% B: 0.05%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.798 |
| Redouble: | +1.428 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.973 (-0.027) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.204 (+0.204) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.012 (+0.961...+0.985) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.025 (+1.178...+1.229) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 43 minutes 18 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 2
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| XGID=aABaBCBB------aAA---Abbc--:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 88.45% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 11.55% (G: 1.12% B: 0.05%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 89.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 10.53% (G: 1.57% B: 0.13%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.755 |
| Redouble: | +1.249 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.900 (-0.004) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.904 |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.096) |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.008 (+0.892...+0.907) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.021 (+0.883...+0.925) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 64.5% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 8 hours 40 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 3
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| ||||
| XGID=bABaBCBB-A-----AA----bbc--:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 92.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 7.53% (G: 0.28% B: 0.01%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 93.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 6.24% (G: 0.35% B: 0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.846 |
| Redouble: | +1.461 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.964 (-0.036) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.234 (+0.234) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.007 (+0.957...+0.971) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.015 (+1.219...+1.250) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Position 4
|
| ||||
| XGID=bBBaBCBB-------AA----bbc--:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 92.42% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 7.58% (G: 0.21% B: 0.01%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 95.31% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 4.69% (G: 0.24% B: 0.04%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.846 |
| Redouble: | +1.526 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.968 (-0.032) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.354 (+0.354) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.007 (+0.961...+0.975) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.019 (+1.335...+1.373) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 15 minutes 01 second | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross