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Disagree with Stick's Book Review

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 14 December 2010, at 6:05 p.m.

In Response To: Disagree with Stick's Book Review (Timothy Chow)

That thread was interesting but had fewer answers than questions -- the one originally raised by the happy juggler, and others thrown out here and there in the thread. Re Maik's comment, I haven't fully absorbed it, but let me say that I'm not looking for (or expecting) perfect correlation between ER and Win Percentage. There are lots of variables -- relative ER, absolute ER's, style of play, differences in opposing strengths/weaknesses, match length, intentionally "bad" play catering to opponents' perceived weaknesses, etc.

However, isn't it alleged, or presumed, that there is a correlation between ER and ELO; between ELO and Win%; and (therefore) between Win% and ER? Is that not true? How true is it? Surely ER should tell us more than how much a player's moves differ from a bot that thinks its own play is perfect?

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