I played around with a bunch of variants which I won't bother posting, but here is one of the more interesting variants, illustrating how much we have to weaken Blue's board to reach the breakeven point among the top three plays.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 115 | | 1 point match | pip: 139 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-BB-BaBA-----Cabb--cdbBA--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 7/6 | eq: -0.434 |
| Player: Opponent: | 28.28% (G:4.17% B:0.05%) 71.72% (G:21.23% B:1.01%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.438...-0.430) Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 | eq: -0.439 (-0.005) |
| Player: Opponent: | 28.05% (G:5.18% B:0.05%) 71.95% (G:20.78% B:1.53%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.443...-0.435) Duration: 2 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/5* | eq: -0.442 (-0.008) |
| Player: Opponent: | 27.90% (G:6.78% B:0.09%) 72.10% (G:47.31% B:8.28%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.448...-0.436) Duration: 3 hours 53 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 23/17 | eq: -0.454 (-0.020) |
| Player: Opponent: | 27.29% (G:4.93% B:0.06%) 72.71% (G:27.52% B:1.77%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.458...-0.450) Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross