Nice position and analysis. I have to say, though, that your analysis makes me feel that the position is "very subtle" rather than "very simple." I can see why 8/3 6/2 might lose more gammons and win more games, but the fact that the extra gammon losses outweigh the extra wins doesn't seem "very simple" to explain. For example, consider the variant below (rollout still in progress), where I've moved Blue's rear checker back a pip, and given Blue the cube so that we don't have to worry about whether Blue has a take. If we take the pseudocubeless numbers at face value, 8/3 6/2 still loses more gammons and wins more games, but it's no longer so clear which way the scales tip.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 115 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---ABCC-A---dB--B-cdbb--A-:1:1:1:54:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/2 | eq: -0.492 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.33% (G:3.75% B:0.08%)
73.67% (G:14.00% B:0.25%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.499...-0.485)
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/8 | eq: -0.495 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.45% (G:3.19% B:0.05%)
74.55% (G:12.17% B:0.25%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.501...-0.489)
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes |
|
| |
1 1956 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21