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Rollout and some variants

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 11:26 a.m.

In Response To: Bear off recube at 3a-3a? (mtuhtan)

As all of you correctly answered, this is redouble at this score.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 52
9 point match
pip: 52
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCACC------------bcadda-:1:1:1:00:6:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 70,13% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,87% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70,11% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29,89% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0,403
Redouble:+0,801
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0,745 (-0,055)
Redouble/Take:+0,801
Redouble/Drop:+1,000 (+0,199)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0,001 (+0,744...+0,747)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0,000 (+0,801...+0,801)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 8,4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


If I had empty 4pt, moving that checker to 3pt; and moving opponent's 2pt checker to 1pt, then it is borderline decision:





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 51
9 point match
pip: 51
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBD-CC------------bcadcb-:1:1:1:00:6:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65,07% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,93% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65,06% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,94% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0,301
Redouble:+0,600
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0,601
Redouble/Take:+0,600 (-0,001)
Redouble/Drop:+1,000 (+0,399)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0,001 (+0,600...+0,602)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0,000 (+0,599...+0,600)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 34,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


With no checker born off (placing that checker on 1pt), having 1 pip advantage (opponent's 1pt --> 2pt, 3pt --> 4pt), it is no redouble:
(If opponent has 1 checker on 4pt, and his checker from 1pt is on 3pt (same pip count as here, but his structure is weaker) - it is redouble.)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 54
9 point match
pip: 53
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBCACC------------bcbce--:1:1:1:00:6:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65,47% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,53% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65,45% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,55% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0,309
Redouble:+0,615
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0,619
Redouble/Take:+0,615 (-0,003)
Redouble/Drop:+1,000 (+0,381)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0,001 (+0,618...+0,619)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0,000 (+0,615...+0,615)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 48,1 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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