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4a4a cube action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 8:44 p.m.

In Response To: 4a4a cube action (Timothy Chow)

White's basic 2-cube takpoint ATS is around 29%, both players gammon values are around 100%, and Blue's 4-cube takepoint is in the 33% nieghborhood. Not many g's for either side but Blue probably wins a net of 10% or so. That raises the takepoint to 39% less cube ownership vig. The cube's probably worth about 9% here (70% of 39% x 33%) so White needs approx 30% cubeless chances to take. Does White win this often? I definitely think so. The race is even and White has a fine chance to anchor, escape, or hit a shot somewhere.

Should Blue send it over? Most doubles lose the market plus maybe 64. Is that enough? I don't think so. I'd take a roll.

ND/T.

Messages In This Thread

• 4a4a cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 6:58 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    higonefive -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 7:33 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 8:44 p.m.
    • 4a4a cube action
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:01 a.m.
      • 4a4a cube action
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:20 a.m.
      • 4a4a cube action
        Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:26 a.m.
        • 4a4a cube action
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:51 a.m.
        • 4a4a cube action
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 5:32 p.m.
  • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:58 a.m.
    • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
      Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 2:28 a.m.
      • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 3:07 p.m.
      • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
        neilkaz -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 4:12 p.m.
        • Oops I meant my opp's TP is higher AtS *NM*
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 4:28 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 4:23 a.m.
  • Rollouts: 4a4a cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:49 p.m.
    • Rollouts: 4a4a cube action
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 4:15 a.m.