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4a4a cube action

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:26 a.m.

In Response To: 4a4a cube action (Paul Weaver)

What I have never understood is most people seem to do it one way or the other. They either go completely John's way, which I love of course because John's estimates are usually sound and even if he is off it isn't by much usually and his errors are likely to be small. Or, they go the Falafel route without the skillset of Falafel. They couldn't estimate the amount of wins/gammons for both side like John does nor do they know exactly how to take the cube vig into the equation. This is the more fly by the seat of the pants thing. It works good, esp. for those players who have developed a 'feel' for backgammon over the years but I'm always lost as to why people don't incorporate both? Or maybe some/few do but I never hear about it.

I only heard the story so I can't provide the actual position but most of you know that Tardieu was a numbers man. He would look at a position and put all the numbers of this or that formula into the equation to come up with whatever action he was looking for. Once I'm told he went in to his thinktank on a cube decision, probably calculating everything under the sun. He then took I'm told a stone cold drop that anyone who actually looked at the position would have understood. He didn't look at it though, he went straight into calculation mode. I try to incorporate both approaches when necessary. First I look at the position, get my own gut feel of it, perhaps going through how numbers play etc... and then I move on to John's method of estimates.

In the actual position Timothy posted I agree with John's numbers but I think he may underestimate the volatility or market loss at the score. Another thing of note is that the cubing side may only have a few absolute crushers this turn, that is likely to repeat itself next turn or they'll maintain the status quo. double/take for me.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• 4a4a cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 6:58 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    higonefive -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 7:33 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 19 December 2010, at 8:44 p.m.
    • 4a4a cube action
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:01 a.m.
      • 4a4a cube action
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:20 a.m.
      • 4a4a cube action
        Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:26 a.m.
        • 4a4a cube action
          Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:51 a.m.
        • 4a4a cube action
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 5:32 p.m.
  • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 1:58 a.m.
    • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
      Stick -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 2:28 a.m.
      • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 3:07 p.m.
      • My OTB thoughts (no bot info here)
        neilkaz -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 4:12 p.m.
        • Oops I meant my opp's TP is higher AtS *NM*
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 4:28 p.m.
  • 4a4a cube action
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 4:23 a.m.
  • Rollouts: 4a4a cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:49 p.m.
    • Rollouts: 4a4a cube action
      John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 4:15 a.m.