The rollout suggests that Dmitriy's intuition is the most accurate of those who have posted here. I was surprised to see that the rollout indicates that the take is pretty close. XGR+, by the way, thinks the take is easy (0.814 or something like that). Can we trust the rollout, given that it differs so much from the evaluation? I think that the D/T equity is probably pretty reliable unless there's some reason to suspect that XG is mishandling the recube. The ND/T equity I'm less sure about. I'm also not sure whether it's O.K. to pretend that the pseudocubeless win/gammon numbers are real here.
I have also posted the money rollout (which indicates a TCTC double) and the position on the next roll after I lost my market. XGR+ thought it was still a paper-thin take (0.997) on the next roll but the rollout indicates a big pass, even though the exchange doesn't look like a massive market loser to the casual observer.
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| XGID=--aaBBB-B--CcB---bBbbd----:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.40% (G: 19.60% B: 1.41%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.60% (G: 8.85% B: 0.69%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.85% (G: 20.86% B: 2.48%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.15% (G: 9.70% B: 1.41%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.489 |
| Double: | +1.313 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.806 (-0.161) |
| Double/Take: | +0.967 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.033) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.016 (+0.790...+0.823) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.022 (+0.945...+0.990) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.8% |
| Duration: 7 hours 54 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Money rollout:
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| XGID=--aaBBB-B--CcB---bBbbd----:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.02% (G: 18.29% B: 0.63%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.98% (G: 8.24% B: 0.30%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.11% (G: 19.75% B: 0.65%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.89% (G: 8.62% B: 0.37%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.340 |
| Double: | +0.912 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.685 (-0.002) |
| Double/Take: | +0.687 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.313) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.015 (+0.670...+0.699) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.018 (+0.669...+0.705) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 57.3% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 5 hours 16 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Next roll:
  |
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| XGID=--aaBCB-B--BbB---bBbcd----:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.06% (G: 23.28% B: 1.15%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.94% (G: 9.99% B: 0.78%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.27% (G: 25.08% B: 3.13%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.73% (G: 11.22% B: 1.61%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.529 |
| Double: | +1.458 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.789 (-0.211) |
| Double/Take: | +1.153 (+0.153) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.016 (+0.773...+0.805) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.029 (+1.124...+1.182) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 4 hours 10 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross