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Take or pass?

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 12:10 a.m.

In Response To: Take or pass? (RealNick)

If you have your opponent closed out and he has five more men off than you, you have about a 75% chance of winning and must cube. This is interesting because your opponent has 12 more men off than you. Usually, I estimate that I lose about 7% GWC for every extra man that my opponent has off. Thus, my GWC is about 25%. We need 23% to take at most scores, so we may have a take here. However, we must be careful because the -3 -3 gammonless take point is a bit higher at 26%. Obviously, the 7% per checker penalty is an estimate. So this could be a pass or take. Still, I like this take.

Stanley

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