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11 to play *RO*

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 8:55 a.m.

In Response To: 11 to play (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Here is the rollout of top 5 plays per xg evals. I'll leave it up to opening experts to explain why one play does better than others. I will only mention that 6/5(2) 8/7(2) is not an option here, since 8pt is as good (or better) as the 7pt in this position.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 163 7 point match pip: 154 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=----a-EbC---dF---c-e--A---:0:0:-1:11:1:0:0:7:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	8/5 6/5	eq: +0.144
	Player: Opponent: 52.03% (G:14.30% B:0.42%) 47.97% (G:9.31% B:0.51%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.134...+0.154) Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
2.	Rollout1	6/4(2)	eq: +0.128 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 51.85% (G:13.65% B:0.38%) 48.15% (G:9.30% B:0.47%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.118...+0.138) Duration: 1 hour 38 minutes
3.	Rollout1	8/7 6/5(3)	eq: +0.125 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 51.83% (G:14.31% B:0.48%) 48.17% (G:10.01% B:0.45%) Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.114...+0.136) Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes
4.	Rollout2	21/20 6/5(3)	eq: +0.079 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 50.85% (G:12.05% B:0.36%) 49.15% (G:8.69% B:0.41%) Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.059...+0.099) Duration: 27 minutes 08 seconds
5.	Rollout2	21/20 8/7 6/5(2)	eq: +0.065 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 50.68% (G:13.14% B:0.44%) 49.32% (G:10.19% B:0.49%) Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.046...+0.084) Duration: 28 minutes 12 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• 11 to play
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 7:49 a.m.
  • 11 to play
    ah_clem -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:21 p.m.
    • 11 to play
      John O'Hagan -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:48 p.m.
      • 11 to play
        ah_clem -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:01 p.m.
        • 11 to play
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:06 p.m.
        • 11 to play
          John O'Hagan -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:58 p.m.
          • 11 to play
            ah_clem -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 2:47 p.m.
            • 11 to play
              neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 7:34 p.m.
  • 11 to play
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:46 p.m.
  • 11 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 9:57 p.m.
    • 11 to play
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 December 2010, at 10:33 p.m.
  • 11 to play *RO*
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 8:55 a.m.
    • 11 to play *RO*
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 24 December 2010, at 4:28 p.m.
  • 62S-64H-64@-21R-11
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 24 December 2010, at 4:53 p.m.