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Take or pass?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 21 December 2010, at 3:02 p.m.

In Response To: Take or pass? (RealNick)

This is very close to a reference position. With White closed out on the bar with N checkers borne off, the winning percentage can be roughly calculated as:

50% for N=8, then add or subtract 10% for each of the first two checkers, add or subtract 7% for each additional checker. This gives the following table:

N pct

4 17 5 23 6 30 7 40 8 50 9 60 10 70 11 77 12 84

This isn't exact, it's what I've memorized and it's close enough for me at this point. You have to make some modifications based on where white's checkers are (the formula assumes they're all on the ace point) and whether blue's bearoff is "fast" (seems too early to tell here). But with a base win pct of about 84% for white it's a Double / Pass by a fairly large margin.

If White had eleven checkers off and three on the 22 point we'd be starting at 77% and have to adjust downward for the fact that the remaining checkers are not on the ace. This probably would eke out a take for money - AtS it would be very close.

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