I do not understand your statement that the TP is 30%. Bot cubing tables indicate that the Live TP is 23% and the Dead TP is 30%. My tables assume a take point which is 60% towards the Dead TP. 30% - (30%-23%) x .6 = 26%.
The below rollout shows a GWC of 24.5% and a small drop (.039). However, XG 3 ply believed that the GWC was 26.22% and this would be a take. The take point seems to be 26% for this problem.
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| XGID=aBBBBBB----A-----AA---b---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:3:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.48% (G: 0.13% B: 0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.52% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 75.72% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 24.28% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.513 |
| Double: | +1.305 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +1.011 |
| Double/Take: | +1.050 (+0.039) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (-0.011) |
| Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Double: | ± 0.017 (+0.994...+1.028) |
| Confidence Double: | ± 0.024 (+1.026...+1.074) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 90.2% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=aBBBBBB----A-----AA---b---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:3:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in 3 ply | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.78% (G: 0.62% B: 0.21%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.22% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.490 |
| Double: | +1.223 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Double: | +0.919 (-0.003) |
| Double/Take: | +0.922 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.078) |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Stanley