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5th roll, 42 to play

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 4:02 a.m.

In Response To: 5th roll, 42 to play (mtuhtan)

(a) This is 5th roll of the game. What were first four rolls/moves?

64S-65K-32>-64Z... (only "error" by agg is .002 for 64S). I see that Petter already posted it.

(b) What would you play here and why?

The important related third-roll position, which I believe most people still get wrong, is 41S-54S-42, shown below. As I recall, the 5k rollout result (no live cube) is something like [P Z60 H80 z100]; in other words, making the 4pt while duplicating 4s is a borderline blowout (anything else is a blunder, and hit-and-down is third best).


1O1O ' ' '5X '4X ' ' '4O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O1O ' '4X

41S-54S-42 [P Z60 H80 z100] ~5 approx


I believe that for the variant third-roll position 41S-43S-42 (forgiving the questionable 43S reply), with White having a 10pt blot/builder (instead of the fourth 8pt checker), it is still clearly right for Blue to make the 4pt. Structure is underrated.

The decision looks quite a bit closer in your position (diagrammed below) because White's ace point blot improves Blue's hit-exchange variations and Blue is 8 pips further behind in the race, but (given what I know of the size of the margin in the above position) I'll still make the 4pt (this time with hit-and-down my second choice).


1X1O1O ' '4X2X3X ' ' '4O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O1O ' '3X

64S-65K-32>-64Z-42


Nack

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