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Rollout: 4a3a cube action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 9:27 p.m.

In Response To: 4a3a cube action (Timothy Chow)

I was quite surprised that the rollout indicated a pass here. (XGR+ takes.) Since Stick hates being wrong, maybe he can figure out how to cook up a D/T rollout somehow. Failing that, I need to recalibrate my intuition about the cash point ATS, and I tip my hat to Dmitriy again for his perceptiveness here.

Money rollout included for comparison.

		White is Player 1 score: 4 pip: 138 7 point match pip: 137 score: 3 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-B-BDB--A-bAb--eBc-b--A-:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	61.94% (G: 21.89% B: 0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.06% (G: 7.98% B: 0.65%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.92% (G: 23.49% B: 2.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.08% (G: 9.01% B: 0.93%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.361
Double:	+1.228
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.812 (-0.188)
Double/Take:	+1.024 (+0.024)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+0.800...+0.824)
Confidence Double:	± 0.019 (+1.006...+1.043)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	99.5%
Duration: 7 hours 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 138 Money session Jacoby pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a-B-BDB--A-bAb--eBc-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	62.64% (G: 21.36% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.36% (G: 7.54% B: 0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.73% (G: 21.71% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.27% (G: 7.51% B: 0.33%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.253
Double:	+0.797
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.567
Double/Take:	+0.514 (-0.053)
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.433)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.012 (+0.555...+0.579)
Confidence Double:	± 0.015 (+0.499...+0.529)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 7 hours 35 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 4a3a cube action
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 22 December 2010, at 11:06 p.m.
  • 4a3a cube action
    Stick -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 6:14 a.m.
    • 4a3a cube action
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 4:09 p.m.
      • 4a3a cube action
        Stick -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 4:40 p.m.
        • 4a3a cube action
          Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 5:08 p.m.
          • 4a3a cube action
            neilkaz -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 5:34 p.m.
  • 4a3a cube action
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Rollout: 4a3a cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 23 December 2010, at 9:27 p.m.
    • Rollout: 4a3a cube action
      Stick -- Saturday, 25 December 2010, at 9:44 a.m.