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1.0 PR = 0.066 points per game; Question for XG

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 24 December 2010, at 2:11 a.m.

In Response To: 1.0 PR = 0.066 points per game; Question for XG (Paul Weaver)

Hi Paul,

Coincidentally Mochy asked me the same question 2 days ago: what the difference between the top bot and top humans.

Let's first see about PR.

For human we can use Iancho study that show the top players play around 2.5-3.5 PR ( http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?frames;read=76539 ) so let pick 2.5 for the sake of the argument.

For the bot we can use the Depreli study ( http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?frames;read=64993) we can determined the highest level (XG Roller+) is around 0.5 PR.

Now, let's put also these number in perspective: Human are evaluated by the bots and the bots by RO. Neither are perfect.

So let's minor the bot level by 0.1, and reduce the human by 0.2 (no maths here, just a hunch). So top humans have 2.3 and bot 0.6, that's a 1.7 PR.

The 1 PR =33 Elo has been discussed here and I think it's widely accepted. So the difference is 56 Elo.

In money play we have the Elo formula so for 1 points match that put the bot 55.33 favorite. For money i got the 50 Elo = 0.100 ppg rule from gathering results. For my own online results [after i determined the rule], i get 0.266 ppg (0.258 with VR) against players averaging 134 Elo less than me , which is right on the target (this is for 4606 money game).

Using that rule the bot would win 0.112 ppg against the top human. So 11 point for each 100 games. This is, i think, the most optimistic result for the humans. more realistically i would guess a PR of 3.0 for a giant so a 0.160 ppg results

Of course this does not take into account anti bot strategy (such as managing to enter a deep Backgame). It should be easy to program to avoid these by just telling the bot to not resent the cube on these position. however this is not the purpose of the bot.

Mochy was suggesting doing a match Human vs Machine. That's be a interesting event. If any organizer have an interest in that, please let me know.

Xavier Dufaure de Citres

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