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63S-32T-33 - Rollouts

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 27 December 2010, at 11:37 p.m.

In Response To: 63S-32T-33? (mtuhtan)

For money, after 5k trials, it is too close to call:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0,522
Player:
Opponent:
61,59% (G:21,87% B:1,50%)
38,41% (G:10,54% B:0,54%)
Conf: ± 0,013 (+0,509...+0,535)
Duration: 25 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/3(2)eq: +0,510 (-0,012)
Player:
Opponent:
61,90% (G:17,32% B:0,64%)
38,10% (G:7,98% B:0,29%)
Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,500...+0,520)
Duration: 24 minutes 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21




At Gammon Go, the choice is clear:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 162
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:33:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout18/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0,659
Player:
Opponent:
62,34% (G:20,64% B:4,02%)
37,66% (G:12,01% B:1,10%)
Conf: ± 0,012 (+0,647...+0,671)
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/3(2)eq: +0,596 (-0,063)
Player:
Opponent:
62,67% (G:17,14% B:1,63%)
37,33% (G:9,85% B:0,85%)
Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,586...+0,606)
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross




At Gammon Save, running to 15pt is the best:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 158
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:33:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout124/15 18/15eq: +0,112
Player:
Opponent:
63,24% (G:17,20% B:1,42%)
36,76% (G:7,62% B:0,58%)
Conf: ± 0,009 (+0,103...+0,121)
Duration: 8 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/3(2)eq: +0,079 (-0,034)
Player:
Opponent:
61,90% (G:20,02% B:1,47%)
38,10% (G:7,96% B:0,64%)
Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,069...+0,089)
Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 13/10(2)eq: +0,057 (-0,056)
Player:
Opponent:
61,58% (G:18,83% B:1,73%)
38,42% (G:8,75% B:0,56%)
Conf: ± 0,010 (+0,047...+0,067)
Duration: 8 minutes 22 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross




At Double Match Point, running to 15pt is again the best, but making 3pt is closer than at Gammon Save:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
1 point match
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---dAe----A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout124/15 18/15eq: +0,249
Player:
Opponent:
62,45% (G:13,86% B:1,17%)
37,55% (G:7,10% B:0,52%)
Conf: ± 0,003 (+0,246...+0,252)
Duration: 38 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/3(2)eq: +0,239 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:
61,97% (G:20,04% B:2,22%)
38,03% (G:8,48% B:0,70%)
Conf: ± 0,004 (+0,235...+0,243)
Duration: 37 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout224/18 13/10(2)eq: +0,223 (-0,026)
Player:
Opponent:
61,17% (G:17,02% B:1,41%)
38,83% (G:7,75% B:0,67%)
Conf: ± 0,007 (+0,216...+0,230)
Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
4.Rollout28/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0,214 (-0,035)
Player:
Opponent:
60,72% (G:25,23% B:6,11%)
39,28% (G:11,77% B:1,35%)
Conf: ± 0,008 (+0,206...+0,222)
Duration: 9 minutes 49 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45297676
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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