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66 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 29 December 2010, at 7:00 p.m.

In Response To: 66 to play (Sebastiaan Kuijs)

I'm assuming that 15/3* 7/1*(2) is the best play here. Since this play double hits, I'm guessing that what looks bad to you about it is that it leaves a double shot and two blots instead of making another home-board point (I'm guessing you played 8/2(2) 7/1*(2)).

There are a couple of reasons why those factors aren't as negative as they might look at first glance. The first thing to note is that after 8/2(2) 7/1*(2), you're leaving more shots than you might think at first. For example, I think Black will hit with 13/10* if the dice allow it. This is something to remember; when you put a second checker on the bar at the cost of a second home-board blot, don't assume that you're necessarily leaving a ton of extra shots; count it out.

The second thing to note is that the blitz isn't guaranteed to succeed, either way you play it. If the blitz doesn't work out, then typically you'll prefer having your 8pt to your 2pt.

If I were to investigate this position further, I'd start by changing the score to GG, GS, and DMP to get a better feeling for the tradeoffs between gammons and wins. Then I'd try strengthening Black's forward position (e.g., giving Black another home-board point) to make getting hit worse. Examining these variants may give you ideas for more variants to investigate.

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