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51$-43H-44 - Rollout

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Wednesday, 29 December 2010, at 10:48 p.m.

In Response To: 51$-43H-44? (mtuhtan)

Nack wrote:
I did a trunc rollout of 51$-43S-44 long ago. As I recall, S (Split, Bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9) easily topped the rollout, while K (kill, Bar/21 13/5*/1*) and c (cross, Bar/21 24/20(2) 8/4) were about tied with each other in distant second place (around –.05).

It seems times (and bots) have changed:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Money session Jacoby pip: 181 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aD-D---dD-a-c-e----BA:0:0:1:44:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.	Rollout1	Bar/21 24/20(2) 13/9	eq: -0,046
	Player: Opponent: 48,56% (G:11,68% B:0,51%) 51,44% (G:12,07% B:0,48%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,052...-0,040) Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 13/5* 5/1*	eq: -0,052 (-0,006)
	Player: Opponent: 48,34% (G:14,81% B:0,62%) 51,66% (G:14,61% B:0,85%) Conf: ± 0,006 (-0,058...-0,046) Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/21 13/9 8/4(2)	eq: -0,078 (-0,032)
	Player: Opponent: 47,84% (G:14,46% B:0,77%) 52,16% (G:15,85% B:1,22%) Conf: ± 0,013 (-0,091...-0,065) Duration: 29 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/21 24/20(2) 8/4	eq: -0,088 (-0,042)
	Player: Opponent: 47,62% (G:10,35% B:0,45%) 52,38% (G:12,01% B:0,44%) Conf: ± 0,010 (-0,098...-0,078) Duration: 37 minutes 40 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45297676 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

After 20k trials, "kill" (the move that I made) is not that far behind anchoring (4ply evaluation thinks it is -0.025 error to hit twice).

Messages In This Thread

• 51$-43H-44?
  mtuhtan -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
  • 51$-43H-44?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 7:10 p.m.
  • 51$-43H-44?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 7:26 p.m.
  • 51$-43H-44?
    garyo -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 8:18 p.m.
    • 51$-43H-44?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 8:55 p.m.
  • 51$-43H-44?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 9:17 p.m.
    • 51$-43H-44?
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 11:13 p.m.
      • 51$-43H-44?
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 27 December 2010, at 11:32 p.m.
        • 61P-54S-51H-53H-44?
          Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:10 a.m.
          • 61P-54S-51H-53H-44?
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:22 a.m.
          • 61P-54S-51H-53H-44?
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:27 a.m.
          • 61P-54S-51H-53H-44?
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:35 a.m.
          • Rollouts
            Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
        • 51$-43H-44?
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:24 a.m.
          • 51$-43H-44?
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 December 2010, at 12:35 a.m.
  • 51$-43H-44?
    Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Wednesday, 29 December 2010, at 9:32 a.m.
  • 51$-43H-44 - Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Wednesday, 29 December 2010, at 10:48 p.m.
    • 51$-43H-44, Snowie trunc
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 December 2010, at 3:46 a.m.
    • 61P-54S-51H-53S-44, Snowie trunc
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 December 2010, at 3:46 a.m.
    • 51$-43H-44 - Rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 December 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
      • 51$-42H-44
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 30 December 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
        • 51$-42H-44
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 December 2010, at 7:40 a.m.