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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 31 December 2010, at 2:54 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (mamabear)

  • Double/Pass yields -7 -10 for 66% ME
  • Double/Take/Lose yields -7 -8 for 55% ME
  • Double/Take/Win yields -3 -12 for 91% ME

Risking 11 (66-55) to gain 25 (91-66). Risk/(risk+gain) gives you a raw take point of 11/(11+25) or 11/36 which we should all know is ~30.5%. Your recube vig in this position is basically nul and void, so we'll ignore that. It's also clear that your gammon value drops somewhat significantly and your opponent's goes up in value on a 4 cube. I will not do the work right now since I'm posting and not having to work this out OtB but XG tells me the leader's gammon value if he takes is reduced to .24 while the trailer's gammon value is .70.

Estimating gammons is an artform that has yet to be defined. I think it's a given that the trailer wins a lot more gammons here than the leader. I also think that the trailer is a game favorite. Seeing the leader as a 60% favorite in the game shouldn't be hard. Ballparking the gammons at 30%/15% respectively that would mean huge fucking pass.

So yes, I'd recube thinking the 'fish' might pass ;).

I also wouldn't be thinking yet about negating some of the value of his gammons--it's only one point of overage anyway.

There is a huge difference in gammon values when there's a point of overage.

Stick

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