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Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 1:28 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

OTB, I estimated the leader's basic 4-cube takepoint at 28.33%, that gammons favored the trailer by 71% - 22%, and that my (non last roll)8-cube takepoint was around 9%. I thought g's favored me by around 20% - 15%, and that it wasn't clear if the oppt could take or not. Matt, Neil, and Stick correctly analyzed it as a clear pass for the leader ATS. Happy New Year to all bgonliners!!

is XG Roller+

score: 6
pip: 144
13 point match
pip: 149
score: 1

is John O'Hagan
XGID=b-BBB-B-----dC--A-AcbbbB--:1:1:1:00:1:6:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59.36% (G: 29.33% B: 0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.64% (G: 15.07% B: 2.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.74% (G: 34.87% B: 0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.26% (G: 16.14% B: 4.70%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.377
Redouble:+1.417
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.954 (-0.046)
Redouble/Take:+1.380 (+0.380)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.019 (+0.935...+0.973)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.029 (+1.351...+1.409)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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