Fans of short rollouts take note: If I had stopped the rollout after 216 trials, it would have put 13/3 ahead by about 0.05 with 98%+ confidence.
I played 13/3 here. The rollout is still TCTC, but making the bar point comes out slightly ahead. With the opponent owning the cube, again there's not much difference but the order of the plays is reversed. As for whether there was a cube before the roll, XGR+ slightly prefers ND to D/T but it's close.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 138 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bCC-D--BbC---bccc-----:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 11/7 | eq: +0.770 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.86% (G:3.11% B:0.10%)
28.14% (G:1.85% B:0.06%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.761...+0.779)
Duration: 2 hours 56 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/3 | eq: +0.757 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.05% (G:2.61% B:0.12%)
27.95% (G:1.40% B:0.05%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.748...+0.766)
Duration: 3 hours 24 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
With opponent owning the cube:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 138 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----bCC-D--BbC---bccc-----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/3 | eq: +0.372 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 72.10% (G:2.57% B:0.12%)
27.90% (G:1.38% B:0.05%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.367...+0.377)
Duration: 3 hours 16 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 11/7 | eq: +0.352 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.80% (G:3.17% B:0.11%)
28.20% (G:1.86% B:0.08%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.347...+0.357)
Duration: 3 hours 07 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21