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Cube Decision

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 6:06 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Decision (David Startin)

If we don't already know the take point it needs to be figured.

  • Double/Pass makes it -5 -2 for 26%
  • Double/Take/Lose makes it -5 -1 C for 16%
  • Double/Take/Win makes it -3 -3 for 50%

We are risking 10% (26-16) to gain 24% (50-26). Risk/(risk+gain) gives 10/(10+24) or 10/34 = 29% as our raw take point.

Let's look at our possible recubes to get a feel for our recube vig.

  • Double/Pass makes it -3 -3 for 50%
  • Double/Take/Lose makes it -1 -3 C for 25%
  • Double/Take/Win is for the match, 100%

You can see we are risking 25% to gain 50% making the recube take point just above 33%. That means we have more recube vig. Using John's figure of 70% for the interpolation between raw take point and fully live take point our raw take point of 29% will drop to somewhere between 21-22%. Do we have that here?

I use the Keith count for any moderate to long race where the distribution isn't super funky. Here the Keith count would tell me for money I'd have both a center cube and a recube and my opponent would have a thin take. I know this equates to somewhere around 77% so my cube action OtB here would be redouble/take.

Stick

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