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Rollout

Posted By: David Startin
Date: Monday, 3 January 2011, at 12:59 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Decision (Sam Pottle)

is ChiefEM422 score: 2 pip: 69

5 point match

pip: 77 score: 0 is MrPedantic

XGID=--CBACB-C-A---b---aabcbbb-:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:5:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	77.09% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.91% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77.05% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.95% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.542
Double:	+1.233
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.831 (-0.130)
Double/Take:	+0.960
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.040)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.003 (+0.828...+0.834)
Confidence Double:	± 0.004 (+0.957...+0.964)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Thanks to everybody for their replies. Extra thanks to those who provided calculations (which were accurate). A Snowie rollout gets the same winning chances, but has it as a drop, which I guess is a result of using a different match equity table.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Decision
  David Startin -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 5:16 p.m.
  • Cube Decision
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 7:47 p.m.
    • Cube Decision
      stw672 -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 9:20 p.m.
      • Cube Decision
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 11:18 p.m.
        • Cube Decision
          David Startin -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 1:27 a.m.
          • Cube Decision
            Sam Pottle -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 2:35 a.m.
            • Rollout
              David Startin -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 12:59 a.m.
          • Cube Decision
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 3:02 a.m.
          • Cube Decision
            Bob Koca -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 6:00 a.m.
  • Cube Decision
    Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Cube Decision
    Stick -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 6:06 a.m.
    • Cube Decision
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 1:24 a.m.
      • Cube Decision
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 3:58 a.m.
        • Cube Decision
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 4:56 p.m.
          • Cube Decision
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 5 January 2011, at 2:22 a.m.
            • Cube Decision
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 5 January 2011, at 11:56 a.m.
              • 70% cube efficiency
                Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 5 January 2011, at 3:52 p.m.