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OLM Su 01/02/11

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 5:16 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 01/02/11 (Jason Lee)

This is a pay-now or pay-later situation.

Of the pay-later plays: 6/3 or 10/9 3/1, 4 shots either way, but I prefer 6/3 because it is more flexible and keeps a spare on the 3 point. Of the pay-now plays: 13/10 or 10/8 6/5, 13 shots either way, but I prefer 13/10 because it clears the mid which is the first hurdle, and it does not leave awful 6s.

So 13 shots now vs 4? The reality is that 13/10 does not exactly create a wonderfully flexible position anyway. If instead we wait, it looks to me like about half of our rolls next turn will improve our position to something similar on average to what we get by volunteering right now. So I equate pay-later to be equivalent to about 8 shots, while pay-now is 13. Seems like a pretty clear decision to pay later.

6/3

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Su 01/02/11
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 10:14 p.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 10:53 p.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    Petter Bengtsson -- Sunday, 2 January 2011, at 11:38 p.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 12:49 a.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    misja -- Monday, 3 January 2011, at 1:45 p.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 1:26 a.m.
  • OLM Su 01/02/11
    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 5:16 a.m.