The rollout puts the hit on top. As I said before, I wouldn't have hit here, but if we give the opponent a significant race lead without increasing his attacking potential too much then I would probably hit.
I've also constructed a possible position that Yellow may have faced on the previous roll, to illustrate that creating a blotty board isn't necessarily a blunder.
1. | Rollout1 | 22/11* | eq: -0.445 |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.33% (G:16.38% B:0.82%) 59.67% (G:30.77% B:3.80%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.462...-0.428) Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 9/3 | eq: -0.505 (-0.060) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.75% (G:3.72% B:0.05%) 63.25% (G:5.02% B:0.16%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.513...-0.497) Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes |
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1 3000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Here's a candidate for the position on the previous roll.
1. | XG Roller+ | 7/4 7/3 | eq: -0.381 |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.69% (G:4.75% B:0.06%) 60.31% (G:5.04% B:0.19%) | |
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2. | XG Roller+ | 9/5 7/4 | eq: -0.385 (-0.004) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.36% (G:5.65% B:0.11%) 60.64% (G:7.02% B:0.48%) | |
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3. | XG Roller+ | 9/6 9/5 | eq: -0.396 (-0.015) |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.79% (G:5.09% B:0.09%) 61.21% (G:6.32% B:0.21%) | |
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4. | XG Roller+ | 9/6 7/3 | eq: -0.397 (-0.016) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.04% (G:5.24% B:0.10%) 60.96% (G:7.13% B:0.48%) | |
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5. | XG Roller+ | 7/3 6/3 | eq: -0.401 (-0.020) |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.63% (G:4.76% B:0.07%) 61.37% (G:6.36% B:0.30%) | |
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross