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Opening 21 [$ 7.9S]46+
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Opening 21 [$ 7.9S]46+ (eXtreme Gammon)
Date: Friday, 7 January 2011, at 5:40 a.m.
Well researched, Xavier!
It doesn't alter your net adjustment much, but based on subsequent extensions by various bots, FYI some aggs have (evidently) moved by .001 or .002.
21$-11 [N H23], prev. [N H21]
21$-21 [$ S4], same
21S-21 [U S3], prev. [U S4]
21S-43 [X Z3], prev. [X Z2]
21S-63 [S R3], prev. [S R4]XG2's agg errors are underlined. This means that for the responses you checked:
21$ equity needs to be reduced by 0.004/18 = 0.00022
21S equity needs to be reduced by (0.003+0.003)/18 = 0.00033Therefore, to account for known reply errors, the margin of Neil's rollout is only slightly narrowed from [$ S7.9] to [$ S7.8].
The biggest error effect is .023/36 = .00064 from 21$-11H, but XG2 correctly plays N, so only the previously compiled XG1 3-ply and 4-ply results get narrowed: the value of $ is inflated by the greater part of .001. So those two might get adjusted from [$ S5] and [$ S3], to [$ S4] and [$ S2], respectively (we wouldn't know without checking all equities to the fourth decimal place).
I believe Snowie had no reply errors to either 21$ or 21S (or if they did they canceled), so it is a solid [$ S8]. GnuBG has errors to 21$ exceeding those to 21S by .005 (by David Rockwell's research), which means we need to mentally adjusting Gnu's large [$ S19] margin to what still seems to be a rather inflated [$ S14]. This is a bit of evidence that Gnu's results in general seem to be slot-happy even after factoring out immediate misreplies.
Nack
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